- There are three types of probabilities mentioned that
students sometimes confuse: theoretical probabilities (made using
mathematical arguments), experimental probabilities (based on data),
and simulated probabilities that come from simulation exercises and are
used to approximate theoretical probabilities. We’ve discussed the
differences between the former two in previous units and this unit
discusses the latter.
- The assumptions under which one performs a simulation is a
model. Remind students of this connection.
- Though students will not learn formal inference using
theoretical models (particularly, the normal model) until later in the
course, remind them that they can make informal inference using
simulated models. It will be very useful to compare the two methods in
later units to show students the value of simulation-based inference.
- Simulation-based inference will be extremely useful
when assumptions used to make formal inference cannot be met.